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Section III · Trade tracker
Refreshed 2h 20m ago
Shadow book.
Every play the engine emits, paper-traded at realistic size — the quantitative trial-and-error lab the live suggestions are calibrated against.
27 open · 201 closes since inception · active signals7-day default view
P&L · 7d
-$8.4K
-$23.2K vs prior 7d
Win rate · 7d
33%
9W / 18L
Open P&L
-$6.4K
27 open · +$53.3K deployed
All-time (active)
+$48.8K
56% wr · 201 closes
Earned vs lost · 7dnet -$8.4K
earned
+$3.0K
lost
-$11.4K
profit factor
0.26
Earned vs lost · all-timenet +$48.8K
earned
+$145.7K
lost
-$96.9K
profit factor
1.50
Performance & analytics — expectancy, equity curve, P&L attribution, entry timingclick to expand
Deploy-grade read · net of slippage + commission
ruleset 2026-06-01.v2NOT YET
Live system, retired signals excluded
Expectancy / trade
+$310
across 198 closes
Win rate (95% CI)
50%
CI 43–56% · 98W/100L
Profit factor
1.39
payoff 1.42×
Net P&L (after costs)
+$61.3K
gross +$106.4K − +$45.1K costs
Sample: established (n≥30)Avg win +$2.2K · avg loss +$1.6Kcost model: $0.65/ct · 5% single / 1% ETF spread fallback
Signal concentration (open book)HHI 0.31
Top signal GEX_FLIP = 38% of deployed risk. Diversified enough (HHI≤0.5).
Sizing is normalized to what we'd actually deploy. Index options (SPX/NDX/RUT) are scaled to the liquid ETF they'd really be traded through (SPY/QQQ/IWM) — one raw NDX contract is ~$242K, which nobody deploys. Position-management notes (scale-ins, size-up/exit) are excluded from capital. Both cost and P&L scale by the same factor, so ROI stays honest. This is the whole point of the shadow book: the dollar figures here are the realistic trial-and-error the live play suggestions are tuned against.
Performance — paper book
Equity curve, active strategies only
201 closes since inception
Last 7d27 closes
$-8.4K/ $35K cap
Last 30d182 closes
+$38.9K/ $405K cap
All time201 closes
+$48.8K/ $436K cap
Currently deployed
$53.3K
cost basis across open shadows
Open P&L (live)
$-6.4K
11.2% lifetime ROI on deployed
Notes
Numbers show paper-book performance — what you'd have earned taking every active-signal shadow at the engine's suggested size. Only live, deploy-grade signals are counted; retired strategies are fully excluded.
P&L attribution — paper book
Where the money came from
active signals · proxy-normalized · all-time
By signal
net realized P&L per alpha source
GEX_FLIP
+$34.6K
107
UW_FLOW
+$22.9K
12
UW_PUT_FLOW
+$4.9K
10
MANUAL
+$1.1K
3
TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG
+$643
2
IV_RANK
+$469
4
CREDIT_SPREAD
-$677
23
CSP_INCOME
-$2.4K
12
CC_INCOME
-$12.7K
28
By week
net realized P&L per Monday-anchored week
May 4
+$9.1K
15
May 11
+$2.7K
6
May 18
+$8.5K
32
May 25
+$22.0K
32
Jun 1
+$14.9K
89
Jun 8
-$8.4K
27
By conviction
net realized P&L per entry conviction
HIGH
+$19.1K
86
MED
+$32.4K
95
LOW
-$1.3K
8
—
-$1.5K
12
Avg max favorable
+35%
116 fwd-captured
Avg max adverse
-42%
worst drawdown pre-close
Capture fraction
56%
realized ÷ peak (winners)
Round-tripped
1
hit +50% then closed flat/down
Entry timing — realized edge
Chase vs pullback — which actually pays?
32 closes with entry-day context
↓ Pullback (red-day entry)
+$418
expectancy
56%
win · 9n
+$3.8K
total P&L
bought into weakness — the playbook-preferred entry
↑ Chase (green-day entry)better edge
+$1.7K
expectancy
65%
win · 23n
+$39.5K
total P&L
bought into strength — momentum continuation bet
Entry day classified from the underlying's move on the open date (red = down day = pullback, green = up day = chase). The higher expectancy-per-trade column is the empirically better entry style for the current book — the live scout uses this to bias entry-timing badges.
Looking for fresh trade ideas? Today's UW + Triple-Confirm candidates moved to /scout with full paragraph reasoning per card.open /scout →
Closed · last 30d · 31 of 182
last 30d P&L -$11.8K · 48% win rate · page 1/2 (active signals, proxy-normalized)
| Trade | Signal | Opened | Closed | Hold | P&L | % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
✗CALL AXTI $87 exp Jul 2 | CC_INCOME | Jun 11 | Jun 12 | 1d | -$1.9K | -51% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✓CALL BE $240 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 0d | +$48 | +3% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL BE $242.5 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 0d | +$0 | 0% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL AXTI $87 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 11 | Jun 11 | 0d | +$0 | 0% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL AAOI $210 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | -$280 | -15% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL AAOI $212.5 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | -$120 | -7% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL AXTI $110 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 8 | Jun 9 | 1d | +$318 | +78% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL AXTI $111 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 8 | Jun 9 | 1d | +$288 | +74% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL AXTI $96 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | +$648 | +77% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL AXTI $97 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | +$573 | +73% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL AXTI $110 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 4 | Jun 5 | 1d | +$410 | +41% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL AAOI $195 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 5 | Jun 5 | 0d | +$200 | +9% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL AAOI $197.5 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 5 | Jun 5 | 0d | +$110 | +5% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL AGIX $46 exp Jul 17 | TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | Jun 1 | Jun 5 | 4d | -$228 | -51% | stop -50% hit |
✓CALL AXTI $110 exp Jun 26 | CC_INCOME | Jun 4 | Jun 5 | 1d | +$1.0K | +65% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✗CALL AXTI $114 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 1 | Jun 2 | 1d | -$530 | -51% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AAOI $207.5 exp Jun 5 | CC_INCOME | Jun 2 | Jun 2 | 0d | -$80 | -4% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL AAOI $210 exp Jun 5 | CC_INCOME | Jun 2 | Jun 2 | 0d | +$70 | +3% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL NOW $114 exp Jul 2 | TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | May 29 | Jun 1 | 3d | +$870 | +56% | target +50% hit |
✗CALL AXTI $108 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 1 | Jun 1 | 0d | -$460 | -55% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AXTI $109 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 1 | Jun 1 | 0d | -$450 | -56% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AAOI $165 exp Jun 26 | CC_INCOME | May 29 | Jun 1 | 3d | -$3.3K | -70% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AAOI $165 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | May 29 | Jun 1 | 3d | -$3.9K | -152% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AXTI $112 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | May 29 | Jun 1 | 3d | -$525 | -57% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AXTI $113 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | May 29 | Jun 1 | 3d | -$530 | -60% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
Fill quality · backtest vs actual
How far do actual fills drift from the model?
251 closes analysed
refreshed 8d ago
| Signal | Trades | Target % | Median slip | p90 slip | Median hold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEX_FLIP | 86 | 70% | 547 bps | 2776 bps | 6d | WIDE |
| CC_INCOME | 14 | 0% | 955 bps | 5378 bps | 0d | WIDE |
| CREDIT_SPREAD | 11 | 82% | 1356 bps | 5115 bps | 1d | WIDE |
| UW_FLOW | 9 | 56% | 926 bps | 2540 bps | 2d | WIDE |
| UW_PUT_FLOW | 5 | 60% | 769 bps | 1192 bps | 1d | WIDE |
| intraday_scan | 3 | 0% | — | 0 bps | 2d | TIGHT |
| MANUAL | 3 | 33% | 1161 bps | 1161 bps | 4d | WIDE |
| CSP_INCOME | 2 | 50% | 600 bps | 600 bps | 1.5d | OK |
| TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | 1 | 100% | 613 bps | 613 bps | 3d | OK |
Slippage measures how far the actual realised return drifted from the model's +50% target / -50% stop benchmark. TIGHT<200bp = model trustworthy. OK 200–800bp = adjust expectations. WIDE>800bp = re-calibrate. DTE force-close + expirations are excluded (no clean benchmark to measure against).
target hit
118 closes · med 616.2bp · WIDE
stop hit
112 closes · med 476.7bp · WIDE
dte force
21 closes · med —bp · TIGHT
Signal performance · last 30d
182 closes · only signals with 30d activity shown (inactive ones suppressed)
| Signal | Trades | Win rate | Avg P&L | Total P&L | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UW_FLOW | 10 | 60% | +$2.3K | +$23.0K | 2 |
| GEX_FLIP | 94 | 57% | +$136 | +$12.8K | 5 |
| UW_PUT_FLOW | 10 | 80% | +$485 | +$4.9K | 3 |
| GEX_FLIP_DOWN | 3 | 67% | +$750 | +$2.2K | 3 |
| TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | 2 | 50% | +$321 | +$643 | 0 |
| MANUAL | 1 | 100% | +$268 | +$268 | 0 |
| CREDIT_SPREAD | 23 | 52% | -$29 | -$677 | 2 |
| CSP_INCOME | 12 | 17% | -$198 | -$2.4K | 11 |
| IV_RANK | 11 | 18% | -$908 | -$10.0K | 0 |
| CC_INCOME | 28 | 46% | -$454 | -$12.7K | 4 |
Want all-time history? See /system. Want lifecycle stages? See /regime.