Section III · Trade tracker
Refreshed 1h 44m ago
Shadow book.
Every play the engine emits, paper-traded at realistic size — the quantitative trial-and-error lab the live suggestions are calibrated against.
71 open · 111 closes since inception7-day default view
Real-money readiness · active signals, net of costs
Ready to deploy68% win · +$784/trade · PF 2.75 · n=111
Edge is positive and statistically established across the active signals. Full breakdown in Performance & analytics below.
stats 8m ago
P&L · 7d
+$44.2K
++$18.4K vs prior 7d
Win rate · 7d
67%
37W / 18L
Open P&L
-$6.8K
71 open · +$178.3K deployed
All-time (active)
+$64.4K
69% wr · 111 closes
Performance & analytics — expectancy, equity curve, P&L attribution, entry timingclick to expand
Deploy-grade read · net of slippage + commission
ruleset 2026-05-29.v1DEPLOY ✓
Live system, retired signals excluded
Expectancy / trade
+$784
across 111 closes
Win rate (95% CI)
68%
CI 58–76% · 75W/36L
Profit factor
2.75
payoff 1.32×
Net P&L (after costs)
+$87.0K
gross +$104.6K − +$17.6K costs
Sample: established (n≥30)Avg win +$1.8K · avg loss +$1.4Kcost model: $0.65/ct · 5% single / 1% ETF spread fallback
Signal concentration (open book)HHI 0.38
Top signal GEX_FLIP = 54% of deployed risk. Diversified enough (HHI≤0.5).
Sizing is normalized to what we'd actually deploy. Index options (SPX/NDX/RUT) are scaled to the liquid ETF they'd really be traded through (SPY/QQQ/IWM) — one raw NDX contract is ~$242K, which nobody deploys. Position-management notes (scale-ins, size-up/exit) are excluded from capital. Both cost and P&L scale by the same factor, so ROI stays honest. This is the whole point of the shadow book: the dollar figures here are the realistic trial-and-error the live play suggestions are tuned against.
Performance — paper book
Equity curve, active strategies only
111 closes since inception
Last 7d55 closes
+$44.2K/ $141K cap
Last 30d111 closes
+$64.4K/ $263K cap
All time111 closes
+$64.4K/ $263K cap
Currently deployed
$178.3K
cost basis across open shadows
Open P&L (live)
$-6.8K
24.5% lifetime ROI on deployed
Notes
Numbers show paper-book performance — what you'd have earned taking every active-signal shadow at the engine's suggested size. Only live, deploy-grade signals are counted; retired strategies are fully excluded.
P&L attribution — paper book
Where the money came from
active signals · proxy-normalized · all-time
By signal
net realized P&L per alpha source
GEX_FLIP
+$42.9K
76
UW_FLOW
+$31.3K
9
MANUAL
+$2.1K
5
TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG
+$870
1
IV_RANK
+$469
4
CSP_INCOME
+$261
2
INTRADAY_SCAN
-$3
3
CC_INCOME
-$13.5K
11
By week
net realized P&L per Monday-anchored week
May 4
+$9.1K
18
May 11
+$2.7K
6
May 18
+$8.5K
32
May 25
+$22.0K
32
Jun 1
+$22.2K
23
By conviction
net realized P&L per entry conviction
HIGH
+$35.2K
41
MED
+$27.4K
52
LOW
+$3.3K
3
—
-$1.5K
15
Avg max favorable
+39%
25 fwd-captured
Avg max adverse
-28%
worst drawdown pre-close
Capture fraction
76%
realized ÷ peak (winners)
Round-tripped
0
hit +50% then closed flat/down
Entry timing — realized edge
Chase vs pullback — which actually pays?
19 closes with entry-day context
↓ Pullback (red-day entry)
+$1.2K
expectancy
100%
win · 3n
+$3.5K
total P&L
bought into weakness — the playbook-preferred entry
↑ Chase (green-day entry)better edge
+$2.0K
expectancy
75%
win · 16n
+$31.2K
total P&L
bought into strength — momentum continuation bet
Entry day classified from the underlying's move on the open date (red = down day = pullback, green = up day = chase). The higher expectancy-per-trade column is the empirically better entry style for the current book — the live scout uses this to bias entry-timing badges.
Looking for fresh trade ideas? Today's UW + Triple-Confirm candidates moved to /scout with full paragraph reasoning per card.open /scout →
Closed · last 30d · 22 of 111
last 30d P&L +$24.2K · 64% win rate (active signals, proxy-normalized)
| Trade | Signal | Opened | Closed | Hold | P&L | % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
✓CALL SNDK $1380 exp Jan 14 | UW_FLOW | May 7 | May 31 | 24d | +$26.8K | +56% | target +50% hit |
✓CALL NOW $114 exp Jul 1 | TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | May 28 | May 31 | 3d | +$870 | +56% | target +50% hit |
✗CALL AAOI $165 exp Jun 11 | CC_INCOME | May 28 | May 31 | 3d | -$3.9K | -152% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AXTI $112 exp Jun 11 | CC_INCOME | May 28 | May 31 | 3d | -$525 | -57% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AXTI $113 exp Jun 11 | CC_INCOME | May 28 | May 31 | 3d | -$530 | -60% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✓PUT ANET $152.5 exp Jun 11 | CSP_INCOME | May 28 | May 31 | 3d | +$196 | +56% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✗CALL AAOI $180 exp Jun 11 | CC_INCOME | May 31 | May 31 | 0d | -$2.3K | -92% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✗CALL AAOI $182.5 exp Jun 11 | CC_INCOME | May 31 | May 31 | 0d | -$2.1K | -90% | premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo |
✓CALL NVDA $220 exp Jun 4 | UW_FLOW | May 31 | May 31 | 0d | +$130 | +24% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL AVGO $420 exp Jun 4 | UW_FLOW | May 19 | May 28 | 9d | +$1.3K | +70% | target +50% hit |
✓CALL TSLA $355 exp Jun 4 | UW_FLOW | May 20 | May 28 | 8d | +$1.4K | +20% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓PUT INTC $109 exp Jun 4 | IV_RANK | May 21 | May 28 | 7d | +$188 | +61% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✗PUT AAOI $152.5 exp Jun 4 | IV_RANK | May 21 | May 28 | 7d | -$70 | -11% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL MSFT $420 exp Jul 16 | UW_FLOW | May 27 | May 28 | 1d | +$1.4K | +80% | target +50% hit |
✗CALL NVDA $180 exp May 21 | UW_FLOW | May 17 | May 17 | 0d | -$123 | -3% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL ENPH $45 exp Sep 17 | UW_FLOW | May 14 | May 14 | 0d | +$528 | +56% | target +50% hit |
✓PUT AAOI $175 exp May 14 | MANUAL | Apr 30 | May 7 | 7d | +$260 | +12% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓PUT AAOI $162.5 exp May 14 | MANUAL | May 3 | May 7 | 4d | +$555 | +32% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL MSTR $180 exp May 14 | UW_FLOW | May 4 | May 6 | 2d | -$910 | -63% | stop -50% hit |
✓PUT INTC $88 exp May 28 | IV_RANK | Apr 30 | May 5 | 5d | +$192 | +55% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL SPX $7255 exp Jun 17 | UW_FLOW | Apr 30 | May 5 | 5d | +$8.1K | +51% | target +50% hit |
✓PUT INTC $86 exp May 28 | IV_RANK | May 3 | May 4 | 1d | +$159 | +50% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
Fill quality · backtest vs actual
How far do actual fills drift from the model?
170 closes analysed
refreshed 3d ago
| Signal | Trades | Target % | Median slip | p90 slip | Median hold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEX_FLIP | 60 | 68% | 541 bps | 3187 bps | 6d | WIDE |
| UW_FLOW | 4 | 50% | 597 bps | 1123 bps | 1d | WIDE |
| intraday_scan | 3 | 0% | — | 0 bps | 2d | TIGHT |
| MANUAL | 3 | 33% | 1161 bps | 1161 bps | 4d | WIDE |
Slippage measures how far the actual realised return drifted from the model's +50% target / -50% stop benchmark. TIGHT<200bp = model trustworthy. OK 200–800bp = adjust expectations. WIDE>800bp = re-calibrate. DTE force-close + expirations are excluded (no clean benchmark to measure against).
target hit
75 closes · med 577.9bp · WIDE
stop hit
86 closes · med 379.6bp · WIDE
dte force
9 closes · med —bp · TIGHT
Signal performance · last 30d
111 closes · only signals with 30d activity shown (inactive ones suppressed)
| Signal | Trades | Win rate | Avg P&L | Total P&L | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEX_FLIP | 76 | 71% | +$998 | +$75.8K | 33 |
| UW_FLOW | 9 | 78% | +$4.3K | +$38.6K | 5 |
| MANUAL | 3 | 100% | +$361 | +$1.1K | 0 |
| UW_PUT_FLOW | 1 | 100% | +$873 | +$873 | 11 |
| TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | 1 | 100% | +$870 | +$870 | 1 |
| CSP_INCOME | 2 | 100% | +$131 | +$261 | 4 |
| CREDIT_SPREAD | 1 | 100% | +$140 | +$140 | 10 |
| earnings_5_7_AMC | 1 | 100% | +$65 | +$65 | 0 |
| NVDA_corning_optical_halo | 1 | 100% | +$65 | +$65 | 0 |
| decision_zone_loss_cap | 1 | 100% | +$63 | +$63 | 0 |
| no_recovery_signal | 1 | 100% | +$63 | +$63 | 0 |
| AAPL_chip_rumor_bloomberg | 0 | — | — | +$0 | 1 |
| portfolio_audit_5_3 | 0 | — | — | +$0 | 1 |
| corning_optical_jv_catalyst | 0 | — | — | +$0 | 1 |
| meta_insider_gpu_shortage | 0 | — | — | +$0 | 1 |
| GEX_FLIP_DOWN | 0 | — | — | +$0 | 6 |
| MACRO_HEDGE | 0 | — | — | +$0 | 2 |
| TRIPLE_CONFIRM_SHORT | 0 | — | — | +$0 | 2 |
| intraday_scan | 3 | 67% | -$1 | -$3 | 2 |
| theta_decay_12dte | 1 | 0% | -$130 | -$130 | 0 |
| post_earnings_winner_lock | 1 | 0% | -$130 | -$130 | 0 |
| IV_RANK | 12 | 50% | -$665 | -$8.0K | 3 |
| CC_INCOME | 11 | 27% | -$1.2K | -$13.5K | 1 |
Want all-time history? See /system. Want lifecycle stages? See /regime.