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Section III · Trade tracker
Refreshed 4h 54m ago
Shadow book.
Every play the engine emits, paper-traded at realistic size — the quantitative trial-and-error lab the live suggestions are calibrated against.
24 open · 226 closes since inception · active signals7-day default view
P&L · 7d
-$17.5K
++$12.4K vs prior 7d
Win rate · 7d
46%
16W / 19L
Open P&L
+$851
24 open · +$29.0K deployed
All-time (active)
+$33.9K
55% wr · 226 closes
Earned vs lost · 7dnet -$17.5K
earned
+$5.5K
lost
-$23.1K
profit factor
0.24
Earned vs lost · all-timenet +$33.9K
earned
+$151.0K
lost
-$117.1K
profit factor
1.29
Performance & analytics — expectancy, equity curve, P&L attribution, entry timingclick to expand
Deploy-grade read · net of slippage + commission
ruleset 2026-06-01.v2NOT YET
Live system, retired signals excluded
Expectancy / trade
+$195
across 223 closes
Win rate (95% CI)
50%
CI 44–57% · 112W/111L
Profit factor
1.24
payoff 1.23×
Net P&L (after costs)
+$43.5K
gross +$91.6K − +$48.1K costs
Sample: established (n≥30)Avg win +$2.0K · avg loss +$1.6Kcost model: $0.65/ct
Signal concentration (open book)HHI 0.35
Top signal GEX_FLIP = 40% of deployed risk. Diversified enough (HHI≤0.5).
Sizing is normalized to what we'd actually deploy. Index options (SPX/NDX/RUT) are scaled to the liquid ETF they'd really be traded through (SPY/QQQ/IWM) — one raw NDX contract is ~$242K, which nobody deploys. Position-management notes (scale-ins, size-up/exit) are excluded from capital. Both cost and P&L scale by the same factor, so ROI stays honest. This is the whole point of the shadow book: the dollar figures here are the realistic trial-and-error the live play suggestions are tuned against.
Performance — paper book
Equity curve, active strategies only
226 closes since inception
Last 7d35 closes
$-17.5K/ $53K cap
Last 30d199 closes
+$39.5K/ $405K cap
All time226 closes
+$33.9K/ $475K cap
Currently deployed
$29.0K
cost basis across open shadows
Open P&L (live)
+$851
7.1% lifetime ROI on deployed
Notes
Numbers show paper-book performance — what you'd have earned taking every active-signal shadow at the engine's suggested size. Only live, deploy-grade signals are counted; retired strategies are fully excluded.
P&L attribution — paper book
Where the money came from
active signals · proxy-normalized · all-time
By signal
net realized P&L per alpha source
GEX_FLIP
+$32.5K
108
UW_FLOW
+$22.9K
12
MANUAL
+$1.1K
3
TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG
+$643
2
IV_RANK
+$469
4
UW_PUT_FLOW
-$121
12
CREDIT_SPREAD
-$521
29
CSP_INCOME
-$2.0K
18
CC_INCOME
-$21.1K
38
By week
net realized P&L per Monday-anchored week
May 4
+$9.1K
15
May 11
+$2.7K
6
May 18
+$8.5K
32
May 25
+$22.0K
32
Jun 1
+$14.9K
89
Jun 8
-$8.4K
27
Jun 15
-$14.8K
25
By conviction
net realized P&L per entry conviction
HIGH
+$3.2K
102
MED
+$33.5K
104
LOW
-$1.3K
8
—
-$1.5K
12
Avg max favorable
+34%
141 fwd-captured
Avg max adverse
-45%
worst drawdown pre-close
Capture fraction
57%
realized ÷ peak (winners)
Round-tripped
1
hit +50% then closed flat/down
Entry timing — realized edge
Chase vs pullback — which actually pays?
32 closes with entry-day context
↓ Pullback (red-day entry)
+$418
expectancy
56%
win · 9n
+$3.8K
total P&L
bought into weakness — the playbook-preferred entry
↑ Chase (green-day entry)better edge
+$1.7K
expectancy
65%
win · 23n
+$39.5K
total P&L
bought into strength — momentum continuation bet
Entry day classified from the underlying's move on the open date (red = down day = pullback, green = up day = chase). The higher expectancy-per-trade column is the empirically better entry style for the current book — the live scout uses this to bias entry-timing badges.
Looking for fresh trade ideas? Today's UW + Triple-Confirm candidates moved to /scout with full paragraph reasoning per card.open /scout →
Closed · last 30d · 157 of 199
last 30d P&L +$18.2K · 55% win rate · page 2/7 (active signals, proxy-normalized)
| Trade | Signal | Opened | Closed | Hold | P&L | % | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
✓CALL BWXT $175 exp Jul 17 | CREDIT_SPREAD | Jun 2 | Jun 11 | 9d | +$90 | +55% | BTC target (50% of max profit) |
✗CALL WDC $560 exp Jul 2 | GEX_FLIP | Jun 1 | Jun 10 | 9d | -$2.9K | -56% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL CBRS $225 exp Jul 2 | CREDIT_SPREAD | Jun 2 | Jun 10 | 8d | -$155 | -111% | stop: loss reached credit coll |
✗CALL NVTS $23.5 exp Jul 2 | CREDIT_SPREAD | Jun 2 | Jun 9 | 7d | -$20 | -100% | stop: loss reached credit coll |
✗CALL AAOI $210 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | -$280 | -15% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL AAOI $212.5 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | -$120 | -7% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL EOSE $8.5 exp Jul 2 | CREDIT_SPREAD | Jun 2 | Jun 9 | 7d | -$22 | -96% | stop: spread near max width (d |
✓CALL AXTI $110 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 8 | Jun 9 | 1d | +$318 | +78% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL AXTI $111 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 8 | Jun 9 | 1d | +$288 | +74% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL AXTI $96 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | +$648 | +77% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✓CALL AXTI $97 exp Jun 18 | CC_INCOME | Jun 9 | Jun 9 | 0d | +$573 | +73% | BTC target (50% profit) hit |
✗CALL LMT $540 exp Jun 26 | GEX_FLIP | May 20 | Jun 8 | 19d | -$787 | -62% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL BE $165 exp Jun 12 | GEX_FLIP | May 7 | Jun 5 | 29d | -$550 | -5% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL LLY $1100 exp Jul 2 | GEX_FLIP | Jun 1 | Jun 5 | 4d | +$2.4K | +54% | target +50% hit |
✓CALL AXTI $110 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 4 | Jun 5 | 1d | +$410 | +41% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL AAOI $195 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 5 | Jun 5 | 0d | +$200 | +9% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✓CALL AAOI $197.5 exp Jun 12 | CC_INCOME | Jun 5 | Jun 5 | 0d | +$110 | +5% | DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr |
✗CALL SPX $7625 exp Jun 18 | GEX_FLIP | May 15 | Jun 5 | 21d | -$4.5K | -84% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL BE $300 exp Jun 26 | GEX_FLIP | May 21 | Jun 5 | 15d | -$2.4K | -60% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL SPX $7500 exp Jun 18 | GEX_FLIP | May 22 | Jun 5 | 14d | -$8.2K | -69% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL SPY $750 exp Jun 26 | GEX_FLIP | May 22 | Jun 5 | 14d | -$801 | -64% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL SPX $7525 exp Jun 18 | GEX_FLIP | May 26 | Jun 5 | 10d | -$7.7K | -73% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL SPY $760 exp Jun 30 | GEX_FLIP | May 26 | Jun 5 | 10d | -$614 | -73% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL SPX $7555 exp Jun 18 | GEX_FLIP | May 27 | Jun 5 | 9d | -$7.4K | -78% | stop -50% hit |
✗CALL SPY $765 exp Jun 30 | GEX_FLIP | May 27 | Jun 5 | 9d | -$533 | -80% | stop -50% hit |
Fill quality · backtest vs actual
How far do actual fills drift from the model?
347 closes analysed
refreshed 1h 18m ago
| Signal | Trades | Target % | Median slip | p90 slip | Median hold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEX_FLIP | 109 | 57% | 573 bps | 2972 bps | 7d | WIDE |
| CC_INCOME | 38 | 18% | 1529 bps | 7531 bps | 1d | WIDE |
| CREDIT_SPREAD | 29 | 48% | 4565 bps | 11511 bps | 2d | WIDE |
| CSP_INCOME | 18 | 28% | 1731 bps | 3426 bps | 3d | WIDE |
| UW_FLOW | 12 | 42% | 597 bps | 2489 bps | 4.5d | WIDE |
| UW_PUT_FLOW | 12 | 67% | 1001 bps | 3241 bps | 4d | WIDE |
| MANUAL | 3 | 33% | 1161 bps | 1161 bps | 4d | WIDE |
| TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | 2 | 50% | 377 bps | 566 bps | 3.5d | OK |
Slippage measures how far the actual realised return drifted from the model's +50% target / -50% stop benchmark. TIGHT<200bp = model trustworthy. OK 200–800bp = adjust expectations. WIDE>800bp = re-calibrate. DTE force-close + expirations are excluded (no clean benchmark to measure against).
target hit
144 closes · med 822.1bp · WIDE
stop hit
161 closes · med 675.7bp · WIDE
dte force
39 closes · med —bp · TIGHT
other
3 closes · med —bp · TIGHT
Signal performance · last 30d
199 closes · only signals with 30d activity shown (inactive ones suppressed)
| Signal | Trades | Win rate | Avg P&L | Total P&L | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEX_FLIP | 89 | 60% | +$299 | +$26.6K | 4 |
| UW_FLOW | 8 | 63% | +$2.8K | +$22.6K | 2 |
| TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG | 2 | 50% | +$321 | +$643 | 0 |
| MANUAL | 1 | 100% | +$268 | +$268 | 0 |
| GEX_FLIP_DOWN | 4 | 50% | +$53 | +$213 | 2 |
| UW_PUT_FLOW | 12 | 67% | -$10 | -$121 | 1 |
| CREDIT_SPREAD | 29 | 52% | -$18 | -$521 | 8 |
| CSP_INCOME | 18 | 39% | -$111 | -$2.0K | 7 |
| IV_RANK | 11 | 18% | -$908 | -$10.0K | 0 |
| CC_INCOME | 38 | 45% | -$555 | -$21.1K | 2 |
Want all-time history? See /system. Want lifecycle stages? See /regime.