Section III · Trade tracker
Refreshed 25m ago

Shadow book.

Every play the engine emits, paper-traded at realistic size — the quantitative trial-and-error lab the live suggestions are calibrated against.

71 open · 111 closes since inception7-day default view
Real-money readiness · active signals, net of costs
Ready to deploy68% win · +$784/trade · PF 2.75 · n=111
Edge is positive and statistically established across the active signals. Full breakdown in Performance & analytics below.
stats 25m ago
P&L · 7d
+$44.2K
++$18.4K vs prior 7d
Win rate · 7d
67%
37W / 18L
Open P&L
-$6.8K
71 open · +$178.3K deployed
All-time (active)
+$64.4K
69% wr · 111 closes
Performance & analytics — expectancy, equity curve, P&L attribution, entry timingclick to expand
Deploy-grade read · net of slippage + commission
ruleset 2026-05-29.v1DEPLOY ✓

Live system, retired signals excluded

Expectancy / trade
+$784
across 111 closes
Win rate (95% CI)
68%
CI 58–76% · 75W/36L
Profit factor
2.75
payoff 1.32×
Net P&L (after costs)
+$87.0K
gross +$104.6K − +$17.6K costs
Sample: established (n≥30)Avg win +$1.8K · avg loss +$1.4Kcost model: $0.65/ct · 5% single / 1% ETF spread fallback
Signal concentration (open book)HHI 0.38
Top signal GEX_FLIP = 54% of deployed risk. Diversified enough (HHI≤0.5).
Sizing is normalized to what we'd actually deploy. Index options (SPX/NDX/RUT) are scaled to the liquid ETF they'd really be traded through (SPY/QQQ/IWM) — one raw NDX contract is ~$242K, which nobody deploys. Position-management notes (scale-ins, size-up/exit) are excluded from capital. Both cost and P&L scale by the same factor, so ROI stays honest. This is the whole point of the shadow book: the dollar figures here are the realistic trial-and-error the live play suggestions are tuned against.
Performance — paper book

Equity curve, active strategies only

111 closes since inception
Last 7d55 closes
+$44.2K/ $141K cap
Last 30d111 closes
+$64.4K/ $263K cap
All time111 closes
+$64.4K/ $263K cap
Currently deployed
$178.3K
cost basis across open shadows
Open P&L (live)
$-6.8K
24.5% lifetime ROI on deployed
Notes
Numbers show paper-book performance — what you'd have earned taking every active-signal shadow at the engine's suggested size. Only live, deploy-grade signals are counted; retired strategies are fully excluded.
P&L attribution — paper book

Where the money came from

active signals · proxy-normalized · all-time
By signal
net realized P&L per alpha source
GEX_FLIP
+$42.9K
76
UW_FLOW
+$31.3K
9
MANUAL
+$2.1K
5
TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG
+$870
1
IV_RANK
+$469
4
CSP_INCOME
+$261
2
INTRADAY_SCAN
-$3
3
CC_INCOME
-$13.5K
11
By week
net realized P&L per Monday-anchored week
May 4
+$9.1K
18
May 11
+$2.7K
6
May 18
+$8.5K
32
May 25
+$22.0K
32
Jun 1
+$22.2K
23
By conviction
net realized P&L per entry conviction
HIGH
+$35.2K
41
MED
+$27.4K
52
LOW
+$3.3K
3
—
-$1.5K
15
Avg max favorable
+39%
25 fwd-captured
Avg max adverse
-28%
worst drawdown pre-close
Capture fraction
76%
realized ÷ peak (winners)
Round-tripped
0
hit +50% then closed flat/down
Entry timing — realized edge

Chase vs pullback — which actually pays?

19 closes with entry-day context
↓ Pullback (red-day entry)
+$1.2K
expectancy
100%
win · 3n
+$3.5K
total P&L
bought into weakness — the playbook-preferred entry
↑ Chase (green-day entry)better edge
+$2.0K
expectancy
75%
win · 16n
+$31.2K
total P&L
bought into strength — momentum continuation bet

Entry day classified from the underlying's move on the open date (red = down day = pullback, green = up day = chase). The higher expectancy-per-trade column is the empirically better entry style for the current book — the live scout uses this to bias entry-timing badges.

Looking for fresh trade ideas? Today's UW + Triple-Confirm candidates moved to /scout with full paragraph reasoning per card.open /scout →
ViewOpen (71)Closed (111)
Range7d30d90dAll
DirectionAllCallsPuts
SignalAllCC_INCOMECSP_INCOMEGEX_FLIPINTRADAY_SCANIV_RANKMANUALTRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONGTRIPLE_CONFIRM_SHORTUW_FLOW

Closed · all time · 101 of 111

all time P&L +$61.7K · 67% win rate (active signals, proxy-normalized)
TradeSignalOpenedClosedHoldP&L%Why
✓CALL
SNDK $1380
exp Jan 14
UW_FLOWMay 7May 3124d+$26.8K+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
HIMS $24
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 21May 3110d+$359+51%target +50% hit
✗CALL
AMGN $350
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 21May 3110d-$405-55%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
AVGO $430
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 25May 316d+$1.5K+55%target +50% hit
✓CALL
AVGO $435
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 26May 315d+$1.3K+50%target +50% hit
✓CALL
NVDA $220
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 26May 315d+$416+57%target +50% hit
✓CALL
NBIS $230
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 28May 313d+$1.7K+62%target +50% hit
✓CALL
NOW $114
exp Jul 1
TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONGMay 28May 313d+$870+56%target +50% hit
✗CALL
AXTI $108
exp Jun 11
CC_INCOMEMay 31May 310d-$460-55%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✗CALL
AXTI $109
exp Jun 11
CC_INCOMEMay 31May 310d-$450-56%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✓CALL
HIMS $25
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 26May 315d+$766+76%target +50% hit
✓CALL
HIMS $26
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 27May 314d+$609+102%target +50% hit
✓CALL
QQQ $750
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 27May 314d+$567+55%target +50% hit
✗CALL
AAOI $165
exp Jun 25
CC_INCOMEMay 28May 313d-$3.3K-70%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✗CALL
AAOI $165
exp Jun 11
CC_INCOMEMay 28May 313d-$3.9K-152%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✗CALL
AXTI $112
exp Jun 11
CC_INCOMEMay 28May 313d-$525-57%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✗CALL
AXTI $113
exp Jun 11
CC_INCOMEMay 28May 313d-$530-60%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✗CALL
AAOI $180
exp Jun 11
CC_INCOMEMay 31May 310d-$2.3K-92%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✗CALL
AAOI $182.5
exp Jun 11
CC_INCOMEMay 31May 310d-$2.1K-90%premium hit 1.5x entry (50% lo
✓CALL
NVDA $220
exp Jun 4
UW_FLOWMay 31May 310d+$130+24%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✓CALL
GEV $1020
exp Jun 25
CREDIT_SPREADMay 31May 310d+$140+70%BTC target (50% of max profit)
✓CALL
AVGO $420
exp Jun 4
UW_FLOWMay 19May 289d+$1.3K+70%target +50% hit
✓CALL
TSLA $355
exp Jun 4
UW_FLOWMay 20May 288d+$1.4K+20%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✓CALL
TSM $430
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 21May 287d+$738+56%target +50% hit
✗CALL
GEV $1085
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 21May 287d-$2.4K-51%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
QQQ $740
exp Jun 29
GEX_FLIPMay 25May 283d+$639+53%target +50% hit
✓CALL
MSFT $420
exp Jul 16
UW_FLOWMay 27May 281d+$1.4K+80%target +50% hit
✓CALL
AAOI $165
exp Jun 4
CC_INCOMEMay 28May 280d+$120+5%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✓CALL
AXTI $112
exp Jun 4
CC_INCOMEMay 28May 280d+$35+4%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✓CALL
AXTI $113
exp Jun 4
CC_INCOMEMay 28May 280d+$10+1%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✗CALL
AAOI $190
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 25May 283d-$1.5K-51%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
GS $1040
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 27May 281d+$1.1K+64%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SPX $7410
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 10May 2818d+$8.7K+58%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SPX $7575
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 27May 281d+$4.0K+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SNOW $170
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 21May 276d+$4.9K+303%target +50% hit
✓CALL
NET $215
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 20May 277d+$885+62%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SHOP $110
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 21May 276d+$453+81%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SHOP $110
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 27May 270d+$458+72%target +50% hit
✗CALL
XLE $60
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 18May 268d-$179-74%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
APP $490
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 11May 2615d+$5.4K+126%target +50% hit
✗CALL
MSFT $435
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 17May 269d-$455-51%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
MSFT $430
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 18May 268d-$728-51%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
APP $530
exp Jul 1
GEX_FLIPMay 26May 260d+$2.8K+57%target +50% hit
✓CALL
QQQ $705
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 7May 2518d+$964+55%target +50% hit
✗CALL
USO $150
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 14May 2511d-$535-52%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
USO $155
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 18May 257d-$791-59%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
APP $505
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 20May 255d+$1.9K+50%target +50% hit
✗CALL
USO $145
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 11May 2514d-$641-51%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
SNOW $175
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 19May 256d+$675+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
WDC $500
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 21May 254d+$2.7K+67%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SMCI $32
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 14May 217d+$151+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
UAL $95
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 14May 217d+$340+55%target +50% hit
✓CALL
DELL $250
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 14May 217d+$2.3K+126%target +50% hit
✓CALL
LLY $1045
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 19May 212d+$2.2K+61%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SMCI $32
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 19May 212d+$464+53%target +50% hit
✓CALL
DELL $250
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 19May 212d+$2.4K+128%target +50% hit
✓CALL
LLY $1035
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 20May 211d+$2.1K+52%target +50% hit
✓CALL
ASML $1575
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 20May 211d+$5.1K+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SOXL $180
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 20May 211d+$1.3K+50%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SPX $7460
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 11May 2110d+$5.8K+51%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SPX $7595
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 17May 214d+$3.5K+64%target +50% hit
✓CALL
GS $960
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 14May 206d+$1.7K+55%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SPX $7600
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 19May 201d+$2.0K+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
UAL $100
exp Jun 25
GEX_FLIPMay 20May 200d+$253+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
ARM $220
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 11May 198d+$2.1K+125%target +50% hit
✓CALL
GS $955
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 5May 1914d+$1.4K+57%target +50% hit
✓CALL
GS $960
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 7May 1912d+$1.6K+74%target +50% hit
✓CALL
GS $970
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 10May 199d+$1.4K+80%target +50% hit
✓CALL
GS $995
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 17May 192d+$803+54%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SNOW $155
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 6May 1812d+$1.1K+74%target +50% hit
✗CALL
UAL $100
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 11May 187d-$258-55%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
HOOD $80
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 5May 1813d-$257-51%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
QQQ $725
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 10May 188d-$701-53%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
HOOD $80
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 11May 187d-$315-51%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
MSTR $185
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 14May 184d-$662-52%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
GEV $1100
exp Jun 4
GEX_FLIPMay 3May 1714d-$3.1K-55%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
GEV $1115
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 4May 1713d-$3.4K-56%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
GEV $1100
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 5May 1712d-$3.4K-52%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
GEV $1130
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 6May 1711d-$3.2K-58%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
NVDA $180
exp May 21
UW_FLOWMay 17May 170d-$123-3%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✗CALL
ASML $1600
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 10May 177d-$4.1K-56%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
LLY $1020
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 11May 143d+$1.3K+52%target +50% hit
✓CALL
ENPH $45
exp Sep 17
UW_FLOWMay 14May 140d+$528+56%target +50% hit
✗CALL
DAL $75
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 5May 116d-$390-51%stop -50% hit
✗CALL
NET $210
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 10May 111d-$680-53%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
QQQ $700
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 6May 104d+$913+51%target +50% hit
✓CALL
HIMS $28
exp Jun 4
GEX_FLIPApr 30May 1010d+$999+56%target +50% hit
✗CALL
MSFT $400
exp May 14
intraday_scanMay 5May 72d-$130-4%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✓CALL
META $615
exp May 14
intraday_scanMay 5May 72d+$63+5%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✗CALL
MSTR $180
exp May 14
UW_FLOWMay 4May 62d-$910-63%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
SPX $7325
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 3May 52d+$5.5K+56%target +50% hit
✓CALL
DELL $215
exp Jun 4
GEX_FLIPMay 3May 52d+$1.4K+52%target +50% hit
✓CALL
ARM $220
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 4May 51d+$945+52%target +50% hit
✗CALL
XLE $60
exp Jun 4
GEX_FLIPApr 30May 55d-$941-54%stop -50% hit
✓CALL
DELL $215
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 4May 51d+$1.5K+88%target +50% hit
✓CALL
SPX $7300
exp Jun 17
GEX_FLIPMay 4May 51d+$7.2K+55%target +50% hit
✓CALL
TNA $65
exp Jun 11
GEX_FLIPMay 4May 51d+$225+54%target +50% hit
✓CALL
AAOI $200
exp May 7
intraday_scanMay 5May 50d+$65+7%DTE ≤ 7 — force exit (theta cr
✓CALL
SPX $7255
exp Jun 17
UW_FLOWApr 30May 55d+$8.1K+51%target +50% hit
✓CALL
TNA $65
exp Jun 4
GEX_FLIPMay 3May 41d+$2.0K+53%target +50% hit
✓CALL
QQQ $685
exp Jun 4
GEX_FLIPMay 3May 41d+$1.5K+50%target +50% hit
Fill quality · backtest vs actual

How far do actual fills drift from the model?

170 closes analysed
refreshed 3d ago
SignalTradesTarget %Median slipp90 slipMedian holdVerdict
GEX_FLIP6068%541 bps3187 bps6dWIDE
UW_FLOW450%597 bps1123 bps1dWIDE
intraday_scan30%—0 bps2dTIGHT
MANUAL333%1161 bps1161 bps4dWIDE

Slippage measures how far the actual realised return drifted from the model's +50% target / -50% stop benchmark. TIGHT<200bp = model trustworthy. OK 200–800bp = adjust expectations. WIDE>800bp = re-calibrate. DTE force-close + expirations are excluded (no clean benchmark to measure against).

target hit
75 closes · med 577.9bp · WIDE
stop hit
86 closes · med 379.6bp · WIDE
dte force
9 closes · med —bp · TIGHT

Signal performance · last 30d

111 closes · only signals with 30d activity shown (inactive ones suppressed)
SignalTradesWin rateAvg P&LTotal P&LOpen
GEX_FLIP7671%+$998+$75.8K33
UW_FLOW978%+$4.3K+$38.6K5
MANUAL3100%+$361+$1.1K0
UW_PUT_FLOW1100%+$873+$87311
TRIPLE_CONFIRM_LONG1100%+$870+$8701
CSP_INCOME2100%+$131+$2614
CREDIT_SPREAD1100%+$140+$14010
earnings_5_7_AMC1100%+$65+$650
NVDA_corning_optical_halo1100%+$65+$650
decision_zone_loss_cap1100%+$63+$630
no_recovery_signal1100%+$63+$630
AAPL_chip_rumor_bloomberg0——+$01
portfolio_audit_5_30——+$01
corning_optical_jv_catalyst0——+$01
meta_insider_gpu_shortage0——+$01
GEX_FLIP_DOWN0——+$06
MACRO_HEDGE0——+$02
TRIPLE_CONFIRM_SHORT0——+$02
intraday_scan367%-$1-$32
theta_decay_12dte10%-$130-$1300
post_earnings_winner_lock10%-$130-$1300
IV_RANK1250%-$665-$8.0K3
CC_INCOME1127%-$1.2K-$13.5K1

Want all-time history? See /system. Want lifecycle stages? See /regime.